Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
